Capernwray Road Race Preview: How Topp Simulates Race Outcomes
- Jake Hollins
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
Something to keep in mind if you're racing on Saturday: don't switch off over the top of the climb thinking you’ve made it!
The biggest one day race of the year is this weekend! Corld Dark North's Capernwray Road Race.
We’re so excited to be supporting the race. It’s also a chance to introduce how we approach race analysis at Topp Cycling. All it takes is the GPX file and a bit of race context.
Let's start with the GPX file:
From there, our system analyses the course topography, projected weather, route exposure and breaks it into segments, each scored for how much wind dynamics and gradient are likely to affect racing speed and drafting dynamics.
Think about this as the major impact the course has on the race. The lower the speed or the lower the draft benefit, the higher the sustained power needed to match the rider in front of you = more likely to cause gaps and splits.
The thing that jumps out straight away for this course is the climb is being dampened by the wind. While it is a tough climb with sustained pitches over 10%, it is into a headwind meaning the draft benefit is not nothing on such ramps.
With 6 and 8 laps, yes the climb is going to cause damage but perhaps not as much as it would have if the wind wasn’t as strong. However any gaps that do appear could turn into very big gaps very quickly as riders turn left over the top of the climb.
This segment has been highlighted as having a high draft pressure score. The wind and high speeds will make it very hard to shut gaps down.
Performance Insight: What the course is likely to ask
Women's Course
Now, we match our course against similar races in our database looking for races and courses that have similar segment profiles. From that pool of comparable races, we build a virtual peloton: a field of riders whose power outputs, fatigue profiles, and tactical tendencies are modelled from how those races actually played out.
We then run approximately 1,000 race simulations across the course. In each run, the virtual peloton responds to the terrain, the wind, and the accumulated fatigue of the riders ahead of them and the race plays out differently every time.
Each segment is scored twice:
a decisive score; the probability that a split at this point doesn't come back together.
a winning move score:the probability that the race winner goes clear from here to the line.
Those two scores combine into an overall key segment rating, which drives the sector rankings and scenario probabilities you see below.
Capernwray Road Race: What might happen
There's a clear difference between the men's and women's races in the simulations.
Men's Capernwray Road Race
The simulation showed the men's race was fairly evenly split between a solo winner and a small group, with the headwind up the climb a major factor. Flip the wind direction and the balance tips further towards a solo outcome.
Women's Capernwray Road Race
In the women's race, a small group fought out the win in ~80% of outcomes regardless of wind direction. And the decisive sector wasn't the climb itself, it was the exposed segment immediately after it, where wind effects were strongest.
Something to keep in mind if you're racing on Saturday: don't switch off over the top of the climb thinking you’ve made it!
Why Topp is supporting races like Capernwray
At Topp, most of what we do sits on the training side of cycling, giving more riders access to the same kind of training and coaching resources available to those at the top of the sport. But we also want to use our platform to support the parts of the sport that make racing possible in the first place.
This year, we’re sponsoring the Proper Northern Road Race at Capernwray. Races like that don’t get much attention outside the domestic scene, but they’re an integral part of the structure that gives riders somewhere to race and develop.
There’s a lot of work behind even a small domestic race calendar, and most of it comes from people putting in time and energy because they care about the sport. If we can help more of that be seen, and support the racing through better coverage, we’re proud to play a part.
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