The 'Magic Formula': Why I Stopped Sending Riders to the Lab

You know the deal. You want to get faster, so you’re told you need data. You’re told to go to a lab, strap on a mask, prick your finger for lactate, and pay £300 for a spreadsheet of numbers that tell you exactly how fit you are... on that particular Tuesday morning.

I used to be part of that system. I’ve raced across Europe and coached riders racing at the top level of the sport. The problem with lab testing isn’t that it’s not accurate. In fact, on the day you take the test, it is as close to 100% accurate as you can reasonably get.

The problem comes with Day 2.

Your physiology isn't static. It changes based on fatigue, stress, illness, and training load. A lab test gives you the best snapshot of a single moment in time. But unless you’re prepared to pay for testing every week (or you’re on a pro team with a very generous budget), that data becomes outdated almost immediately.

Most pros only get tested twice a year, maybe every six weeks if they are lucky. That leaves a lot of time for guesswork.

The Origin Story: A 10-Year-Old Spreadsheet 

As a student, I couldn’t afford recurring £300 lab tests. I needed a way to understand my own physiology without the price tag. I dug into the research and came across the work of Alois Mader, a German researcher who developed a mathematical model for human physiology back in the ‘80s.

His work focused on modeling aerobic and anaerobic energy contribution. While some physiologists at the time were skeptical, saying that the idea of mathematically modeling human physiology was impossible, I found that when applied correctly, it worked. So, the engine inside what is now Topp Cycling started more than ten years ago with a university project and an elaborate spreadsheet.

Why Daily Metabolic Modeling Wins 

Years later, I went back to Mader’s ‘magic formula’ from the 1980s. Now that we can enhance the model with AI, I really believe we’ve made the sporadic lab testing approach obsolete.

Instead of a one-off test, our system runs the model every single morning and updates it after every session you upload.

Here is the trade-off: A lab test might be 100% accurate once every six months. Our model is about 90% accurate, but it is accurate every single day. In the real world of training, where consistency counts, having a 90% accurate picture of your fitness daily is more valuable than having a 100% accurate picture that is three, six or nine months old. 

Think of it like this: would you rather have a weather forecast that’s 100% accurate one day every six months, or one that’s 90% accurate every single day?

Turning Data into Insight 

The real power of our model isn't about finding your FTP, we go far deeper than that. Because we can model both your aerobic and anaerobic contribution, we can calculate exactly how much glycogen you are burning during a ride.

This was always my biggest frustration working with pro teams. I would have this incredible data, but the nutritionists would often ignore it, preferring to stick with what they knew. At Topp, we have automated that conversation. The app uses your metabolic profile to tell you exactly how to fuel for the work you are doing, ensuring you are eating for performance, not just guessing. Our model becomes your coach, nutritionist – and the more data you give it, the more accurate it becomes. 

Access for All

I built this platform because I believe you shouldn't have to be on a World Tour team to train like a pro. As part of our commitment to making this tech accessible to all, we’ve made our metabolic testing method available for free, so you can get this insight in under a minute.